I’ve been thinking a lot about reflexivity as it’s reappeared across investment ideas. Then it clicked on a more personally philosophical level: Easter Egg Capital itself is built on reflexivity.

I will get into what I mean by that, but let’s first set the stage.

Reflexivity Is Everywhere

Reflexivity is the idea that investor belief can front-run fundamentals, creating a self-reinforcing loop that pushes the trend in either direction. Rising expectations can pull fundamentals higher; collapsing expectations can drag them lower.

In the case of a growth company, investor belief in its future allows the company to raise capital at supportive valuations. That capital funds real assets, growth, and defensibility, which support the elevated valuation as the company executes. Of course, it doesn’t end there – the reflexive flywheel continues.

We see this across financial markets:

• High-growth tech names attract capital at supportive valuations, enabling faster growth

• AI and datacenter CAPEX, where belief in the technological vision drives today’s massive spending

• Meme or comeback stories like GameStop or Hertz, where investor enthusiasm can be translated into balance-sheet strength and a real shot at a better future

• Bitcoin, where sustained elevated prices attract more adoption, more builders, deeper liquidity, and ultimately higher prices as belief compounds

• Investment trends as allocators crowd into specific industries or markets

• Even passive flows are reflexive, with index funds allocating each new dollar based on market cap weighting, compounding existing investor momentum (looking at you, Nvidia).

This is something we all know intuitively, but once it’s fully internalized, the market feels simpler:

Catching these reflexive winners early – whether it’s a budding tech name or a shifting investment theme – is where the most potent asymmetric alpha lies.

Getting in the Reflexivity Arena

As I thought about this and Easter Egg, it struck me that startups are reflexivity in its truest form. Nothing but a deck, a vision, and investor belief is translated into product, traction, and eventually fundamentals.

A founder sells the future; early believers fund the path to making it real. That’s exactly the dynamic I’m embracing with Easter Egg Capital – not just in my investment efforts, but to reflexively launch the media engine around the fund.

In my case, media is all about attention, and has its own reflexive loop:

Attention → Traction → Funding/Monetization → More Attention

Easter Egg’s “Ignition Event”: Using Reflexivity Intentionally

Meaningful early traction is the single hardest part of any new venture, especially in media. If you can break through the noise early, everything becomes easier: distribution, network effects, compounding audience, and ultimately a business generating free cash flow.

To break through that barrier, I’m engineering an ignition event designed to cut through the noise and accelerate audience growth as I launch Easter Egg Capital.

Here’s the reflexive loop I’m building:

Early backers → Ignition Event Attention → Traction & Momentum → Next Phase Funding & Monetization

My immediate priority heading into the new year is securing early backers to fund the ignition event and early capital needs. From there, I’ll begin rolling out more of the content roadmap I laid out in my introduction note – with some elements waiting until after the ignition moment and fund inception. After the initial growth phase, I plan to expand the media effort and to build complementary technology that advances the vision.

Time to Build

So that’s the plan. Time to build this media engine and show that reflexivity – and a bit of “responsible degeneracy” – can build something special and for good.

2026 is going to be one hell of a year. Stay tuned.

Jeff

All content from Easter Egg Capital is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here should be taken as financial, investment, or trading advice.

The result is predictable: they will spend aggressively because they have no alternative.

The question is not whether stimulus is coming, we already know this from existing proposals and announcements. It’s what form it takes, in what size, and where the money actually lands.

But this cycle is not 2020. There will be helicopter money, yes, but like the Covid era’s emergency healthcare spending there are new beneficiaries to consider for this round.

There are four primary subsets of stimulus ideas that I am focusing on and will dive into separately:

• U.S. Industrial & Critical Minerals

• U.S. Consumer Stimulus

• The Debasement Trade

• Insulated Economies

U.S. Consumer Stimulus

Covid-era stimulus materially changed the public’s expectations. Despite the stimulus checks we remember so well, corporations, asset owners, and PPP loan recipients captured the majority of the stimulus wealth transfer.

The next wave will look different. The U.S. consumer and political backdrop is far more fragile today:

• Inflation has outpaced wage growth for years

• Wealth inequality is at historic extremes

• Consumption is increasingly concentrated in upper-income households

• Lower- and middle-income households are strained

• Populist pressure is rising

Given deteriorating consumer strength and political pressure, future stimulus rounds will need to shift notably towards households that are actually struggling.

But timing matters. I expect checks will be delayed as long as possible to avoid pre-election inflation so long as the market can remain elevated, and so far public signaling suggests a mid-2026 window which aligns with this view.

For investors, this perspective shifts the winners to where the lower- and middle-income cohorts are likely to spend:

• Discount and working-class retailers and restaurants

• Value-focused grocers and staple producers

• Meat producers

• Energy, domestic travel

I conclude we are soon reaching an inflection point where we can no longer paper over our problems with rising asset prices and the wealth effect. The shift towards supporting a working class that is tired of fighting for table scraps will alter consumer spending patterns, and thereby investment opportunities.

U.S. Industrial & Critical Minerals

An obvious strategy to front-run fiscal stimulus is simple: listen to what the government says it will subsidize and assume they’ll overshoot.

The Trump administration has explicitly named critical minerals, domestic manufacturing reconstruction, and strategic investment as priorities, and they’ve already backed words with checks. A fresh $355m to expand domestic production of critical minerals was just announced yesterday. Deals with companies like MP Materials and Lithium Americas can include incentives like growth capital and price floors. Supply deals like US Antimony Corp’s are being announced.

This is not subtle.

Some analysts expect the government may eventually need to backstop parts of the AI infrastructure buildout – further expanding the scope of strategic industrial investment. I think this would be politically unpopular and do not expect this to happen, but it is very possible in a world where the government is taking equity stakes in companies like Intel.

Add in private AI datacenter buildout and expected foreign investment tied to trade deals – however overinflated they might be – and you have a real CAPEX and U.S. industrial base buildout tailwind.

The beneficiaries aren’t mysterious, but the scale and timing of these industrial buildouts are still uncertain. To account for this, I’ve split the opportunities into two categories based on structural inevitability and execution risk. Note that the listed beneficiaries consider all CAPEX buildout, both private and stimulus led, and will take time to show results.

Highest Conviction Beneficiaries:

• Critical minerals (front running announcements)

• Copper (now on critical mineral list; needed for reindustrialization, AI datacenter buildout, and grid infrastructure buildout including renewed renewable energy buildout in future administrations)

• Grid and transmission infrastructure

• Energy production, refining, and infrastructure

• Electrical equipment (transformers, switchgear, substations)

• Industrial gases

• Construction/EPC contractors

• Cement and aggregates

“Show Me” Beneficiaries:

• Machinery and heavy equipment

• Steel

• Aluminum

• Energy services and field operators

• Freight/logistics tied to domestic production and re-industrialization

Some of these names are already priced richly and therefore are not attractively valued, while others are not as they reflect economic uncertainty and the prospect of recession, so these ideas deserve careful exploration and patience to find attractive entries with requisite risk/reward.

I’ll publish names I’m tracking or including in the Easter Egg Fund as they’re identified, but I will take my time with my fishing here, as I expect these trends to take time to materialize especially amidst economic concerns.

Debasement Trade

All roads lead here.

Sovereign debts will not be repaid in real terms anytime soon. The only politically viable path is currency debasement masked as “growth” or an “inflation surprise.” Governments will continue spending while suppressing rates through QE, yield-curve control, or whatever flavor of MMT they can get away with. Also known as fiscal dominance.

Debasement winners are the obvious ones:

• Precious metals, especially gold

• Bitcoin

• Commodity producers and refiners

• Real asset-heavy equities

• Select software providers

• Companies that hold durable inventory (when inflation is really taking hold)

And importantly:

Savers get punished. As we have already seen, bonds of any meaningful duration become a no-touch in an inflationary environment with suppressed yields. Knowing what not to hold matters as much as picking winners.

Insulated Economies

In a world where major economies are forced into aggressive fiscal expansion and currency debasement, where you invest matters as much as what you invest in. Especially when foreign exchange volatility is widely expected, owning assets denominated in the right currencies is crucial.

The question is: which countries have the demographics, natural resources, infrastructure, and political flexibility to avoid unproductive stimulus and outperform in an inflationary global regime?

Three stand out.

Brazil

My highest conviction foreign market.

• Commodity heavyweight with renewed relevance in a real asset world

• Strong demographics (large, young workforce)

• Well positioned to maintain strategic neutrality between the U.S. and China, benefiting from both trading partners in a multipolar world

• Consistent positive real rates and export demand support a stable currency

• Equity markets rich with dividend-heavy companies trading at attractive valuations

Brazil is positioned to benefit from a global inflationary environment supporting commodity prices, with a strong domestic backdrop to also grow the domestic economy. Investors are counting on a rightward shift in the upcoming elections – while I agree that this would be a positive result, I perhaps naively feel the country is well positioned regardless of election outcome given their positioning to play well in a multipolar world. Brazil does not need large stimulus to grow, and as growth materializes the country is poised for further stability.

India

India fits the framework almost perfectly:

• Elite demographics – the strongest of any major economy

• A rising middle class driving domestic consumption

• Limited fiscal dependence relative to peer countries

• Strategic importance in a multipolar world (supply chain diversification, growing consumer market)

• High real growth potential even in an inflationary global environment

• Access to cheap Russian energy

The only caveat is valuation: Indian equities are not the cheapest. But structurally, India is one of the few large economies set up to thrive through global reflation and currency volatility.

For macro positioning, it belongs on this list to watch closely and consider building a position, especially on weakness.

China (Proceeding with Caution)

China is facing severe demographic difficulties, but structurally it still carries very potent advantages:

• It already built domestic supply chains and technological advantage in critical minerals, solar, batteries, EVs, and nuclear

• It is pivoting toward boosting household consumption’s share of GDP

• It remains central to regional economic architecture

• It benefits from a large internal market and policy agility (China can push through painful reforms, such as deflating the real estate bubble, with far less political risk than Western governments), helping to avoid unproductive stimulus and currency debasement

• Access to cheap Russian energy

The risks here are twofold. For one, identifying investment opportunities can be tricky given the state-run company dynamics and ultra-competitive low-margin industries like EVs, but opportunities are promising in the right segments of the economy. But the biggest risk is not economic – it is geopolitical. U.S.-China relations could deteriorate to the point where foreign capital becomes trapped, much like with Russia in 2022. Because of these factors, exposure must be selective, ideally discounted, and sized carefully.

China fits the framework, but risk management matters more here.

Conclusions

Stimulus is coming – both to corporations and, increasingly with time, to consumers. But this time around, the distribution will be targeted, the political priorities are different, and the currency debasement endgame is beginning to rear its head.

The investment map begins to come into focus when you see stimulus, industrial policy, debasement, and jurisdiction as a single integrated system:

• Industrial policy → potential stimulus recipients and domestic picks & shovels

• Consumer support → value retailers and essentials

• Debasement → real assets and companies who thrive during inflation

• Jurisdiction → demographics, stability, and resource leverage

The era of fiscal dominance is here. The investors who understand these dynamics and position accordingly can avoid falling victim to debasement themselves.

More to come on specific names and portfolio construction.

Jeff

All content from Easter Egg Capital is for informational and entertainment purposes only and should not be considered financial, investment, or trading advice.

If you haven’t already, I would recommend first reading my overall GameStop investment thesis, as the multiples and premiums in this analysis are of course rooted in the conclusions of the original note.

TL/DR: Using a hybrid of adjusted book value multiplier and sum of the parts methodologies, I arrive at a current fair price of the company today of $33B, or ~$74/share.

Before I go any further, let’s bring back the meme from the first note to get this out of the way for any new readers:

As discussed in the first note, while there is certainly some value that should be assigned to right tail event outcomes, these are only a cherry on top of an already sound investment foundation. The fear of looking like Big Bird in the board meeting appears to truly have put a ceiling thus far on the stock.

Investment Thesis Summary

First, a quick refresher on the overall investment thesis before getting to valuation analysis:

· Ryan Cohen & Board Incentive Alignment – 100% aligned to long-term shareholders; they are fellow shareholders who receive zero compensation.

· Balance Sheet Strength & Profitability – Nearly $9B of cash and equivalents, 4,710 Bitcoin, and right-sized with growing profits.

· Organic Growth Initiatives – Collectibles, PowerPacks, and Push Start Arcade all offer real reason for excitement.

· “Monetize the Apes” M&A Possibilities – My personal view that a retail conglomerate M&A strategy offers compelling accretive value given the ability to activate a shareholder base that is ready to support the company.

· The Tesla Effect (Reflexivity) – Any past mispricing is ancient history, the company has stored value on its balance sheet and is now valuable.

· Reddit Theories and Pumps as a Bonus “Call Option” – Only an added kicker, not the investment thesis.

· Volatility Breeds Income Opportunities – Drawdowns provide buying opportunities, upside events provide opportunities to harvest gains/lower cost basis.

Valuing A Moving Target

So all of this bullish rationale makes sense, but how the heck do we value this thing to know whether the company is undervalued?

Discounted cash flow analysis is an imprecise exercise today with the company undergoing tectonic shifts in the business, resulting in uncertain but promising future cash flows. We just don’t have enough information to use DCF.

Applying earnings or sales multiples is also useless given the shifting currents in the business as the company right-sizes legacy operations, kicks off its organic growth initiatives, and for now mostly preserves future earnings optionality on its balance sheet until investments are made. This means that both sales and earnings are inherently understated compared to company value, and that these ratios will of course be high compared to other retailers given the small denominator.

But we have to value the stock somehow, and I find it best to do so via an adjusted book value basis and sum of the parts hybrid methodology, since this allows us to reflect the company’s fortress balance sheet, assign a premium to reflect the brand/community value that is not present on the balance sheet, and to assign value to the upside event possibilities that is inherent in the stock.

Adjusted Book Value Component

Book value is the only stable denominator available today for GameStop, because earnings and revenue are temporarily and intentionally suppressed while the company restructures.

The price to book value ratio for GameStop at the time of this writing is a bit south of 2, which on the surface doesn’t look so bad if the company is just a struggling retailer turning around the business. But as we have covered, GameStop is much more than that.

First of all, GameStop’s book value is unusually clean for a retailer and deserving of a premium multiple on that basis alone, as it is comprised primarily of cash and Bitcoin. Typically, with a retailer we are looking at roughly half of assets being inventory, with the rest being a mixture of right-of-use assets from leases, intangibles/goodwill, other capitalized assets (machines, buildout costs, fixtures), and a small amount of cash (receivables are usually de minimis). Most of these assets are typically optimistically stated, whereas with GameStop the asset values are rock solid.

Since GameStop’s financials assign $0 for intangible assets, let’s add a very conservative $1B to the company’s book value to account for the company’s intellectual property and goodwill for its existing business and organic growth efforts.

Given Best Buy’s goodwill & intangibles value of $1.4B, assigning $1B to GameStop feels more than reasonable.

Let’s then also assume another conservative $1B in intangible value for the fact that any organic growth or M&A activities will automatically receive a “GameStop halo effect”, as the company’s loyal community rushes to support any new company initiative or acquisition. GAAP does not capitalize brand, community, or reflexive network value, which materially understates GameStop’s economic value relative to peers given its critical advantage there. I don’t compare this to Best Buy because Best Buy’s intangible assets don’t include this either, this should be viewed as GameStop’s community premium over comparable retailers.

The additional $2B brings us to a total adjusted book value of roughly $7B.

Now that we have an adjusted book value, moving on to P/B multiples since we are keeping it simple I find ChatGPT’s summary of retailer price to book value summary sufficient:

The point here isn’t precision; it’s to anchor GME within the broader retail valuation landscape and then adjust for its unusually clean balance sheet and optionality.

Even the above chart I find conservative when I see names like Best Buy sporting a P/B of 6x, with almost half their assets being comprised of lease assets or goodwill/intangibles having essentially no liquidation value!

But let’s keep it simple and very conservative, because we made the book value adjustments and I like to sleep at night. Assigning only a 4x P/B value against our adjusted book value of $7B, that gets us to a $28B company valuation.

Upside Event Possibility Value

While it is very much not the primary basis for my bull case, like it or not the fact is that GameStop does have strong event-driven tailwinds that could produce right tail events in the stock price. Whether it’s “meme names” melting up due to inflationary fiscal or monetary policy, another Roaring Kitty cycle, or if any of the Reddit community conspiracy squeeze theories turn out to have merit, the stock price enjoys violent rapid appreciation potential.

This is no scientific valuation method as there is no economic way to value this element other than to use other “meme values” as a proxy to reflect that the market does assign value to memes that are fundamentally worthless. Using meme coins as a proxy given their otherwise uselessness, I put GameStop’s “meme value” somewhere between Dogecoin’s ~$23B and Fartcoin’s $300M, but haircutting it down to a still substantial $5B given that it’s the original “meme company” likely to demand a continued premium and cult following. This feels conservative to me given that the comparable assets have far less substance than GameStop with no way to translate market cap into economic value.

Total Company Value

Worth noting in both components, once the above value is properly reflected in the stock price, GameStop can then crystallize this appreciation through share or convertible note issuance, further fortifying its balance sheet and exercising its reflexive flywheel advantage over competitors.

Adding the $5B of meme value to the $28B company value that we previously calculated based on adjusted book value, we get to a total company value of $33B.

On a per-share basis, this gets us to about $74/share, well above today’s price of under $21. Very undervalued, even through what I feel is an overly conservative lens.

Parting Thoughts

It’s an imperfect science, especially with a name like GameStop in the midst of a reflexive turnaround, but I feel the above exercise puts some logic behind the claim that the company is significantly undervalued and provides a conservative estimate for what a fair value might be for the company.

In summary:

· Adjusted book value = $7B

· Conservative BV multiple = 4x

· Fair value = $28B + $5B “meme” value = $33B, or ~$74/share

As the company executes on its strategy, its value will become increasingly difficult to ignore and as such I expect a reasonable fair value estimate to continue to grow alongside that success.

If there is any reader pushback to any of the above analysis or conclusion, please reach out or comment below, as I would love to hear it!

But as far as I can tell, the market and media has a hard pill to swallow about GameStop:

All content from Easter Egg Capital is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here should be taken as financial, investment, or trading advice – especially so for this post!

Kidding aside, let’s first acknowledge the elephant in the room:

While there is clearly value ascribed to meme, especially in today’s markets, let me be clear: I’m not here to peddle tinfoil conspiracies or MOASS theories. While my attention to GameStop began for the same reason as everyone else’s, I’ve become convinced there’s genuine long-term value here – a compounder ignored due to meme stigma. I don’t just “like the stock,” I love it.

This write up is my overall GameStop investment thesis, which will be soon followed by a more quantitative valuation analysis. After reading my thesis, I invite you to please share any critical feedback as to where I may be misinformed or misguided – I want to hear it.

And one point of information before I get into the weeds: I want to make clear that GameStop is but one of many investment ideas and themes that I am very enthusiastic about as this era of populism, currency debasement, and geopolitical/global trade rewriting evolves. By no means would I encourage anyone to put more than a reasonable allocation into any single idea, particularly one as risky and volatile as this one. However, as a risk-loving and thoroughly convinced reformed degen, unless the facts on the ground change – or I am convinced otherwise – while I already own a small position in my personal account, I intend to initiate a max position size in this idea in my soon-to-launch Easter Egg Fund.

As a complement to this analysis, this recent interview with Ryan Cohen provides a telling glimpse into his approach to fundamentally growing the business with an owner mentality, some assuring confidence around PowerPacks and collectibles, and just generally shows he is a quality leader approaching business with integrity. (I personally do not agree with his AI doomer perspective displayed here but that is neither here nor there for this analysis.)

In this analysis I’ll cover the following key areas of conviction for GameStop as a long-term holding:

• Ryan Cohen & Board Incentive Alignment

• Balance Sheet Strength & Profitability

• Organic Growth Initiatives

• “Monetize the Apes” M&A Possibilities

• The Tesla Effect (Reflexivity) – The Past Is Not The Present

• Reddit Theories and Pumps as a Bonus “Call Option”

• Volatility Breeds Income Opportunities

Here goes…

Ryan Cohen & Board Incentive Alignment

This part is easy. There is plainly 100% alignment between Ryan Cohen (GameStop’s CEO), the board, and long-term GameStop shareholders.

Cohen has not received a penny in salary, or any equity compensation. He has purchased all of his stake, totaling over 37 million shares. He’s an owner, not just an operator collecting a paycheck. 100% alignment.

As for the board, as of 2024, GameStop eliminated all cash and equity compensation for non-employee directors. Their only financial exposure now comes from personally owned shares. 100% alignment.

This is why I find claims of ill intentions towards retail by Cohen and the board… I’ll be gracious, misinformed. They would be hurting themselves if they were hurting retail by “dumping” shares on them with an offering or selling convertible notes. It also means that they genuinely believe it’s better for shareholders to wait for better M&A opportunities, and that the current level of Bitcoin holdings are appropriate. I happen to agree on all fronts.

It’s not complicated. Cohen and the board are aligned with shareholders – we just have to be patient and play the long game.

Balance Sheet Strength & Profitability

Yes, over the years revenue has come down markedly as retail and gaming has pivoted to digital and GameStop experienced its “Sears” problems. Indeed, there won’t suddenly be a resurgence of people rushing to the local mall to exchange their physical games, but this misses the point of the company’s newfound financial health, let alone what is to come.

From a balance sheet perspective alone, the company appears conservatively valued. Cash and equivalents sit at almost $9B, its 4,710 Bitcoin are worth ~$500M, and the only debt the company carries is its 0.00% convertible senior notes outstanding of ~$4.2B (2030s and 2032s). Even excluding intangible assets such as brand, IP, or goodwill – which clearly have value – this gets you to over $5B of book value, and growing. A fortress balance sheet.

I say “and growing” because the business is now profitable and is becoming more so. The financial statements are there for anyone to look at so I will not get too granular here, but the company has aggressively attacked bloat by closing underperforming physical store locations, taken dramatic SG&A cost cutting measures, and foreign market assets have been or are in the process of being divested, all of which is streamlining operations to focus on profitable operations and growth efforts. On the Revenue side, without getting into the new growth markets (next section), while software sales (games) continued their decline down 27% year over year as would be expected due to fewer stores, hardware and accessory sales actually rose 31% year over year to over $592 million, benefiting from Nintendo Switch 2 hardware sales, which position the business well headed into the holidays.

The company is now simply profitable at the operating level, with net income further amplified by interest income that some critics dismiss as “not real revenue”.

Despite the significant store closures, revenues are ticking up lately, which brings me to….

Organic Growth Initiatives

Whether people choose to recognize it or not, GameStop has been making the right moves from an organic growth perspective towards high-margin segments with greater scalability, which are already bearing fruit. This is not financially engineered growth through M&A – just cold, hard sales and pre-revenue growth initiatives.

The collectibles segment is the primary area of organic expansion. Collectibles revenue grew ~63% year-over-year to $227.6 million in Q2 FY 2025, representing roughly 23% of total sales. This includes card sales as well as a partnership with PSA to turn GameStop’s storefront into grading submission centers.

Importantly, the Q2 results don’t even capture a promising new extension of GameStop’s partnership with PSA to launch Power Packs! Power Packs entered public beta in July 2025, allowing collectors to digitally open PSA-graded cards, after which customers can choose to store them in PSA’s Vault, physically ship them home, or instantly sell them back to GameStop. This sale process captures the dopamine of pack-opening – a naturally sticky and gambling-like dynamic especially in a digital environment. One beautiful element here is that if the card(s) are sold back to GameStop (at a 10% discount to PSA value), payment is made in Power Packs credit, which can be withdrawn for cash but provides a nice flywheel back into additional sales and is effectively interest-free operating capital.

With regard to Power Packs and collectibles in general, it’s worth pointing out Cohen’s confidence about Power Packs in the interview I shared near the top of the article where he also claims it’s in beta simply because they can’t get enough inventory to sell. Assuming this is true, what a problem to have.

Push Start Arcade is in limited/beta rollout; GameStop has teased it publicly, but detailed mechanics and partner scope haven’t been formally disclosed yet. Though details remain light, it appears to expand on the PowerPacks mechanic but with a broader “digital arcade” interface.

So, the operating mix is shifting toward higher-margin collectibles, while the balance sheet, including low-coupon converts, give the company ample strategic optionality. Which brings me to…

“Monetize the Apes” M&A Possibilities

This is my favorite part, because it’s me riffing on strategy and what I think they can and should do with the balance sheet. I have a different view than just about everyone I’ve heard here.

When I hear speculation about M&A target opportunities, I most often hear about card grading companies, live stream operators, game developers, or even crypto companies. While I get it that these are related to the current business, I believe an alternative strategy is more accretive…

Arguably the most important asset that GameStop owns is not Bitcoin or cash on the balance sheet. It’s their retail army. As soon as Power Packs launched, the Reddit communities were flooded with “pull” photos. The army of apes want to support the company.

What if the M&A strategy focused on giving them new opportunities to support the company, by building a retail conglomerate? For each acquisition, all of a sudden a healthy percentage of the United States would switch on a dime or at least try to support the new acquisition where they can.

Almost any retail-facing acquisition could benefit from the army effect. They could buy Spirit Airlines for a bargain out of bankruptcy. They could buy some ridiculously small insurance company or bank, and immediately scale their client base overnight, eating market share. Insurance and banking are just math to me – if the rates are fair, I’m in! I particularly like the insurance idea – after all, Berkshire funds their operations through insurance premiums!

Speaking of Berkshire – and yes this is speculation – there is a clue that isn’t talked about much anymore. GameStop’s investor page sure looks a lot like Berkshire’s… Even the text at the bottom is identical: “If you have any comments about our WEB page.” This is not a coincidence, and might just be an obvious wink towards M&A strategy. I’m not saying Cohen is the next Warren Buffett, but perhaps GameStop is building their war chest to follow the Berkshire model.

The Tesla Effect (Reflexivity) — The Past Is Not The Present

I know many readers may already understand this concept and history, but based on the online vitriol around GameStop, its share price, and its prospects moving forward, I need to include a quick refresher as it’s clear many folks do not.

Tesla’s Near-Death Moment

The Tesla shorts were very arguably “right” on fundamentals several times in Tesla’s history, but that didn’t stop them from getting decimated. This has got to be the clearest case study in reflexivity we’ve seen, and we can draw from this experience in analyzing GameStop’s past and present.

The company was in a world of hurt in 2017-2018 – very reliant on selling regulatory credits and experiencing months of production delays, cost overruns, and quality issues creating a situation where free cash flow was deeply concerning and by Elon’s own account the company was within “a few weeks of bankruptcy” and in “manufacturing hell.” Short interest was over 30%, and prominent names were publicly short the stock, even comparing the company to Enron.

We all know what happened next. A herculean level of hustle and hard work, yes, to eke out sufficient delivery numbers. But also, Elon provided a steady stream of proclamations to “burn” shorts as well as wildly optimistic claims around future products and delivery timelines, which market participants chose to eat up, sending the stock on a massive short squeeze to wild market caps – up 10x from 2019-2021, burning the shorts indeed. As the stock price rose, it quite literally provided the financing needed to turn those valuations into hard assets and ramp up production and profitability.

While there’s still a great case to be made that the stock is overvalued, it’s not going to zero – value now plainly exists and Elon Musk is the wealthiest man in the world. This is reflexivity – a self-reinforcing loop where a rise in stock price actually creates company value.

The Lesson for GameStop

Bringing these lessons to GameStop, shorts were also fundamentally correct here in 2020 and 2021, but that doesn’t mean their short worked. The company was burning cash quickly as it was getting rapidly Amazon-ed – a dying retailer on its way to the graveyard to most eyeballs. However, one man saw Deep Value and he liked the stock – and whether you believe him or not he did not do anything illegal in my opinion while he shared his thesis and united a retail army, igniting the short squeeze we all remember so well.

Naturally, over the years GameStop has cashed in on this newfound company value, locking in this balance sheet value just as Tesla before it and providing plenty of runway to pursue a profitable path forward, playing offense with a healthy balance sheet rather than fighting to barely survive another day.

When I hear some people talk about GameStop, I get the feel that many don’t quite realize the nature of how reflexivity can create value out of nothing once that is transformed into balance sheet health. Once that value is there, the game has reset. The past is ancient history, and regardless of the short thesis of 2020, all that matters is today and the path forward from here.

GameStop is now valuable.

Reddit Theories and Pumps as a Bonus “Call Option”

The conspiracy stuff is fun and interesting, but it’s not my investment thesis. The fundamental thesis now stands on its own. I think the right way to look at these squeeze scenarios is as a welcome call option on an already sound investment.

I will say the warrant thing was interesting – why in the world would the board issue warrants to shareholders if not something to do with synthetic or lent shares? The White House GameStop retweet saying “Power to the Players” is interesting – maybe Eric Trump likes the stock. There is lots of Reddit tinfoil about something to do with papered over swaps from Archegos- or even GFC-related lending that is somehow tied to GME shorts – that is all above my IQ and not what I care to hunt down, but if something systemic were true, especially with issues in credit as of late, that would be interesting.

As a personal theory side note, I also wonder if Steve Cohen’s Point72 might be among the convertible note buyers – why else would they own GameStop puts if not to arb out the convertible notes?

The only other thing I’ll say about the conspiracies is that the price action seems very… let’s just say, strange. It often feels artificial and like holding a beach ball underwater, but as a bull of course I’m probably inclined to feel that way.

Putting the tinfoil together into a dense ball you can put in your pocket, the point of this section is that it’s not worth stressing over the unknowable, but these theories are a potential catalyst that do merit some “call option” type upside that should be considered gravy on top of an already very solid long-term fundamental outlook, rather than the investment thesis itself.

But if you get an opportunity, take it! Speaking of…

Volatility Breeds Income Opportunities

Another fun part, this one more on strategy. We all know the stock is volatile, and as a result I think the key to maximizing returns with this investment is to use the volatility to our advantage when we get opportunities to do so.

That doesn’t mean trade GameStop! If there’s one thing I’ve learned with GameStop it’s that this stock is something to own, not to trade. Volatility is your ally here if you can play the long game and use it to your advantage.

On the buy-side, this means to use dips to our advantage. I am honestly conflicted on buying in over time or buying in all at once, and will probably err towards the latter because I don’t want to miss a big move. Selling puts to initiate positions is at times an interesting option as well, especially to add to an existing position when implied volatility (option premiums) are high, but this of course risks missing out on upside.

But most importantly, I think it’s critical to take gains on any Roaring Kitty squeezes, White House pumps, or other random melt ups we may see. I will either take some off or sell expensive call options in those scenarios (again, if IV spikes premiums) to lock some gains even if I am keeping a position on for the long-term.

You have to know when it’s an offer you can’t refuse.

Final Notes

If my hypothesis turns out to be wrong or management fails to execute, I’ll of course change my thinking accordingly.

And outside of all this reasoning, it’s also just fun to be a GameStop shareholder…

I look forward to hearing your feedback, especially critical.

Power to the players!

Jeff

If you enjoyed this post, you can follow along on X and Substack below. Also if you want to know what I’m up to at Easter Egg Capital, you can find an overview here.

X: https://x.com/EasterEggCap

Substack: https://substack.com/@eastereggcapital

Last edited Nov 19, 2025 to correct financial statement inaccuracies, to provide a better Ryan Cohen interview link, and to include speculation about Steve Cohen’s Point72. No change to conclusions.

All content from Easter Egg Capital is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here should be taken as financial, investment, or trading advice – especially so for this post!

I say future because right now I am truly at zero – no audience, no team, no momentum. Just conviction to build a modern media platform around my natural obsessions and interests – translating market insights into Easter Egg Fund positioning and publicly documenting my journey along the way.

I’ve made and lost money over the years, learning where my edge truly lives – not in fast trades, but in synthesizing the larger symphony of markets — identifying mispriced incentives and setups that create asymmetric opportunities. Easter Egg Capital is about slowing down the game, systematically taking in information and perspectives to continuously refine investment strategy and portfolio composition in a long-term pursuit of alpha.

This isn’t a traditional fund – it’s investing in public and transparently building a worldview around the Easter Egg Fund. The public nature of this project will help me to be a “responsibly degenerate” investor: thoughtful, disciplined, and frameworks-first, but not afraid to have fun or take big swings along the way – within my positioning rules. I’m leaning into “me.”

My background is relevant, but it isn’t Wall Street. Curiosity and obsession are what brought me here. I don’t pretend to have all the answers – others will almost always have deeper expertise across most domains – but Easter Egg is built on the belief that clear frameworks, focused thinking, and shared ideas can create sustainable alpha. This core belief shapes Easter Egg’s approach as I incorporate perspectives from the community and guests to refine my thinking.

In time, I am excited about expansion plans – more creators, more conversations, more verticals, even developing technology. But that’s later. For now, here’s the core:

What to Expect

The Sunday Synthesis – My weekly flagship, reflecting on notable developments from the week, any updates to my investing framework or the Easter Egg Fund portfolio. Written + video, which are likely to become live streams with time.

Periodic deep dives – When an idea deserves more space, longer-form Substack pieces and research notes.

Easter Egg Conversations – A long-form podcast series with investors, operators, independent thinkers, and interesting people who bring strong perspective.

A major initiative is planned for Q1 – something high-conviction that I expect to serve as an ignition moment for audience growth and the launch of the Easter Egg Fund.

More on that soon.

If this resonates, hop aboard:

X: https://x.com/EasterEggCap

Substack: https://substack.com/@eastereggcapital

Thanks for being here from the start.

To a great ride and building something special.

Jeff

All content from Easter Egg Capital is for informational and entertainment purposes only and should not be considered financial, investment, or trading advice.